The United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union after a “Leave” vote in the Brexit referendum, and the opposition to trade agreements by the leading candidates in the U.S. presidential election, made clear that a backlash against globalization has gained momentum in advanced economies. Once elected, President Trump moved swiftly to leave the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the signature regional trade negotiation of the Obama administration, and has called for a renegotiation or the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). This moment offers a valuable opportunity to rethink the course that globalization has taken in the last three decades and to explore alternative paths, particularly as it relates to North American integration.
A summary of this conference is now available online at the CAROLA website.
Georgetown University Latin America Initiative (LAI), the Center for Latin American Studies (CLAS), the Latin American Leadership Program (LALP) and the Center for the Advancement of the Rule of Law in the Americas (CAROLA) held an all-day conference at Georgetown University Law Center.
Conference Schedule
9:00 am - 9:15 am: Welcome and Introduction
Álvaro Santos, Georgetown University Law Center/Director, Center for the Advancement of the Rule of Law in the Americas (CAROLA)
9:15 am - 10:45 am: Panel 1 | The Balance of NAFTA
Since NAFTA was first negotiated, 25 years ago, trade between NAFTA parties has grown from roughly $290 billion in 1993 to 1.3 trillion yearly. Cross-border investment has also increased, the stock of US foreign investment in Mexico rising from $15 billion to more than $226 billion today. Furthermore, it is estimated that 25 cents out of every dollar of goods that are imported into the U.S. from Canada are U.S. value content, as is 40 cents out of every dollar of goods imported into the U.S. from Mexico. However, NAFTA has also fallen short of the expectations it created regarding economic growth, wage equalization between countries, and wider benefits to society. This panel provides a diagnosis of NAFTA’s effects on its member countries, both positive and negative. We will discuss aspects of the treaty that have been successful as well as those that have not worked well and could be improved.
Chair/Discussant: Duncan Wood, Director, Mexico Institute - Wilson Center
Panelists
- Rufus Yerxa | President, National Foreign Trade Council
- Laura Dawson | Director, Canada Institute - Wilson Center
- Gerardo Esquivel | Professor, El Colegio de Mexico
- Simon Lester | Trade Policy Analyst, Cato Institute
- Mark Weisbrot | Co-Director, Center for Economic and Policy Research
10:45 am - 11:00 pm: Coffee Break
11:00 am - 12:30 pm: Panel 2 | Wither NAFTA 2.0?
This panel analyzes the negotiating positions of the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Given NAFTA outcomes, economic outlook and global position for each of these countries, what aspects of the agreement would each like to change? We will discuss potential aspects of consensus and conflict. What are the relevant sectors for each country? What are their top priorities and their red lines? Where can they offer concessions? Moreover, where are the opportunities for win-win changes and for improving the agreement where it has not been effective? Critics have pointed out an asymmetry between the rights and protections given to capital and labor. Can this imbalance be addressed?
Chair/Discussant: Jennifer Hillman, Georgetown University Law Center
Panelists
- Debra Steger | Professor, University of Ottawa
- Melinda St. Louis | Director of International Campaigns, Global Trade Watch
- Antonio Ortiz Mena | Senior Advisor, Albright Stonebridge Group
- Chad Bown | Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics
12:30 pm - 2:30 pm: Lunch & Keynote
Karen Antebi, Economic Counselor, Trade and NAFTA Office - Embassy of Mexico in Washington, DC.
2:30 pm - 4:00 pm: Panel 3 | Domestic Measures to Bolster NAFTA
Critics of NAFTA have pointed out the shortcomings of the agreement in terms of job loss, displacement, and wage stagnation or decline. In the U.S., NAFTA is equated with the outsourcing of jobs to Mexico and wage decline. In Mexico, it is held as the source of jobs but also of displacement of millions of farmworkers and as a pull factor of immigration to the U.S. If trade theory predicts not only gains but also losses, what could countries do domestically to address job loss and wage decline? What measures can they take to spread the gains from trade, compensate those who lose and make the economic integration more palatable? Furthermore, how can countries increase those gains from trade by promoting growth policies that take greater advantage of the agreement?
Chair/Discussant: Matthew Carnes, Georgetown University Department of Government/Director, Center for Latin American Studies
Panelists
- Dany Bahar | Fellow, Brookings Institution
- Celeste Drake | Policy Specialist, AFL-CIO
- Edward Alden | Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations
- Mario Delgado | Senator, Mexican Senate (MORENA)
4:00 pm - 5:00 pm: Closing Reception
Learn More About The Future of NAFTA and North American Integration